Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov is a clash of styles the sport of MMA was made for. Perhaps the best striker in the match vs the best grappler in this sport is a fantasy fight for UFC fans and Nurmagomedov, the current UFC lightweight champion, is preferred to win -170 with McGregor coming back in +140. The mega-fight will take place tonight in vegas in UFC 229.
From a promotional standpoint, making the battle is a fantasy come true for the UFC as it will undoubtedly be one of the most profitable events in their history, and from a gaming perspective, there’s plenty of money to be produced too. McGregor fans will probably be foaming at the mouth to put a wager on the Irishman, particularly at plus-money, but is that a wise wager versus the 26-0 Nurmagomedov, whose smothering grappling design was completely unsolvable?
McGregor’s grappling skills are probably in the typical selection and that is an area where he has been taken advantage of before. A considerably smaller Chad Mendes readily took McGregor to the mat whenever he wished to at UFC 189 (yes, I understand McGregor won the struggle ), and he was choked out by Nate Diaz in UFC 196.
He does have a significant disadvantage when it comes to wrestling, however, there are different areas where McGregor could have a definite upper hand, most notably with his palms. Eighteen of his 21 professional wins have come via T/KO and he has an extremely impressive hit list that includes finishes of Jose Aldo, Eddie Alvarez, Dustin Poirier and, of course, Paulie Malignaggi (insert smiley face emoji here).
Line Movement (or lack thereof)
In the event the quantity of gambling action McGregor received vs Floyd Mayweather is any indicator, some bettors clearly do not care how he matches stylistically — following launching at +950 vs Mayweather, McGregor closed at +265 because of an avalanche of stakes placed on him.
Many, including myself, presumed that we would have seen far more motion online due to plenty of people cash coming in around McGregor, but that hasn’t been the case yet. On the afternoon Khabib vs McGregor was declared, Nurmagomedov opened at -200 with McGregor at +160. With the champ now at -170 and Conor in +140 on the day of the struggle, there’s still pretty good value on McGregor as a dog and those that are confident in Khabib should feel good about getting him at a far greater number than his opening odds.
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